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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+6.13vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+10.86vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.42+5.00vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.90+5.89vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.05+4.27vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin3.04+3.41vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.84-0.91vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.38-0.06vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.21-0.38vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+1.47vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College3.06-1.49vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.99-1.97vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston2.60-1.83vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.74-3.61vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.38-2.81vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.03-6.42vs Predicted
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17Boston College3.35-8.72vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-8.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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12.86University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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8.0Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.89Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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9.27Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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9.41University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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6.09University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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7.94Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.62Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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11.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.0%1st Place
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9.51Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.03University of Vermont2.990.0%1st Place
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11.17College of Charleston2.600.0%1st Place
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10.39Georgetown University2.740.0%1st Place
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12.19George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.030.0%1st Place
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8.28Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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9.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Simone Staff | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 18.6% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Julia Lambert | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% |
| Casey Klingler | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| Laura Wefer | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% |
| Rachel Bryer | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Sarah Williams | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Bailey Carter | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.1% |
| Erin Mullins | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Megan Yeigh | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Mary Dahl | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
| India Johnstone | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 15.7% |
| Rosalind Lesh | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.