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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.21+7.99vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.84+4.30vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+4.13vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.99+5.58vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+4.42vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.38+2.09vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+4.29vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.74+2.73vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.05+0.42vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.03-0.09vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.58+0.61vs Predicted
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12Stanford University2.90-1.48vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-0.49vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.35-6.11vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin3.04-5.55vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College3.06-6.51vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.42-9.02vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston2.73-7.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.99Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.3University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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9.58University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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9.42St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.09Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.0%1st Place
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10.73Georgetown University2.740.0%1st Place
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9.42Yale University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.030.1%1st Place
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11.61George Washington University2.580.0%1st Place
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10.52Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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12.51University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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7.89Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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9.45University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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9.49Bowdoin College3.060.0%1st Place
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7.98Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.7College of Charleston2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Williams | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Rachel Bryer | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Megan Yeigh | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Bailey Carter | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 8.8% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 7.1% |
| Casey Klingler | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| Rosalind Lesh | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% |
| Miranda Bakos | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 12.5% |
| Julia Lambert | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% |
| Simone Staff | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 12.2% | 20.5% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Laura Wefer | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Erin Mullins | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Elizabeth Pemberton | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.