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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.06+8.57vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.04+7.71vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+4.14vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.84+2.10vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+6.14vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+6.68vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.03+2.58vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.42-0.25vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.21-0.35vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.74+1.05vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.58+0.57vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-2.15vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.05-3.73vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.35-6.17vs Predicted
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15Stanford University2.90-4.99vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.38-7.89vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston2.60-5.46vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont2.99-8.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.57Bowdoin College3.060.0%1st Place
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9.71University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.1University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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11.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.0%1st Place
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12.68University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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9.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.030.1%1st Place
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7.75Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.65Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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11.05Georgetown University2.740.0%1st Place
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11.57George Washington University2.580.0%1st Place
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9.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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9.27Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.83Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.01Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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8.11Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.54College of Charleston2.600.0%1st Place
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9.48University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Mullins | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Laura Wefer | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Rachel Bryer | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Bailey Carter | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% |
| Simone Staff | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 20.8% |
| Rosalind Lesh | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Sarah Williams | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% |
| Miranda Bakos | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.7% |
| Carolyn Smith | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% |
| Casey Klingler | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 3.2% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Julia Lambert | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Mary Dahl | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Megan Yeigh | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.