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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.85+5.41vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.71+3.19vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.52+3.39vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.93+4.37vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.18+2.93vs Predicted
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6Harvard University1.62-0.29vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.57-1.08vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.18-0.29vs Predicted
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9Tufts University0.54+0.02vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island0.12+0.61vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania-0.50+1.39vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.82-3.47vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont-0.05-1.59vs Predicted
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14Stanford University1.00-6.35vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.26-8.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41Brown University1.859.3%1st Place
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5.19Dartmouth College1.7113.8%1st Place
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6.39Old Dominion University1.528.5%1st Place
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8.37George Washington University0.935.1%1st Place
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7.93U. S. Naval Academy1.186.0%1st Place
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5.71Harvard University1.6211.7%1st Place
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5.92Yale University1.5710.1%1st Place
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7.71Northeastern University1.185.6%1st Place
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9.02Tufts University0.544.2%1st Place
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10.61University of Rhode Island0.122.5%1st Place
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12.39University of Pennsylvania-0.501.1%1st Place
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8.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.824.9%1st Place
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11.41University of Vermont-0.051.9%1st Place
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7.65Stanford University1.006.6%1st Place
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6.76College of Charleston1.268.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Hamilton | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| bella casaretto | 13.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Ava Farley | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Kate Danielson | 11.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Foley | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.1% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 17.5% | 14.5% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 40.2% |
| Karya Basaraner | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| Ella Towner | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 23.6% |
| Ava Cornell | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Emily Alfortish | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.