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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University1.62+4.81vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.18+5.42vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.71+2.30vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.54+4.94vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.85+1.27vs Predicted
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6George Washington University0.93+2.34vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.26-0.36vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.18-0.17vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.52-2.77vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.82-1.54vs Predicted
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11Stanford University1.00-3.20vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.57-6.18vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.12-2.61vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania-0.50-1.89vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.76-2.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81Harvard University1.6211.5%1st Place
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7.42Northeastern University1.186.4%1st Place
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5.3Dartmouth College1.7112.7%1st Place
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8.94Tufts University0.543.9%1st Place
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6.27Brown University1.859.9%1st Place
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8.34George Washington University0.935.4%1st Place
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6.64College of Charleston1.268.0%1st Place
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7.83U. S. Naval Academy1.185.6%1st Place
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6.23Old Dominion University1.529.8%1st Place
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8.46Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.825.7%1st Place
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7.8Stanford University1.005.9%1st Place
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5.82Yale University1.5710.7%1st Place
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10.39University of Rhode Island0.122.5%1st Place
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12.11University of Pennsylvania-0.501.4%1st Place
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12.64University of Vermont-0.760.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Danielson | 11.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| bella casaretto | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 4.6% |
| Laura Hamilton | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Emily Alfortish | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ava Farley | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Marina Conde | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Karya Basaraner | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% |
| Ava Cornell | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 1.1% |
| Audrey Foley | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 11.1% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 20.8% | 31.8% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 19.8% | 40.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.