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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+4.54vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.98+5.83vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.65+2.68vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.80+4.60vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+1.90vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.47+0.34vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41-0.55vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.27-1.21vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.21-1.67vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College2.70-1.18vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.47-1.20vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.61-6.22vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.88-1.31vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.85-2.12vs Predicted
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15University of Washington0.95-0.95vs Predicted
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16University of Minnesota0.84-1.55vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University0.51-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.83Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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5.68College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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8.6University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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6.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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6.34Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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6.45George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.79Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.33Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.82Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
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9.8University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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5.78Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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11.69Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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11.88University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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14.05University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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14.45University of Minnesota0.840.0%1st Place
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15.08Texas A&M University0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 13.1% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jake Reynolds | 12.0% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Eddie Cox | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sean Golden | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Timothy Siemers | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| John Coakley | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 12.1% | 3.6% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 10.6% | 17.3% | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| Eric Villadsen | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| Erin Hawk | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 22.5% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.