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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.65+4.51vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+3.55vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.47+3.25vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.61+1.88vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.98+2.76vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.27+1.09vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+0.08vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.41-1.68vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.21-1.68vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College2.70-1.22vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.47-1.19vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.85-0.26vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.80-4.31vs Predicted
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14Texas A&M University0.51+1.09vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota0.84-0.74vs Predicted
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16University of Washington0.95-1.82vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.88-5.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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5.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.25Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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5.88Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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7.76Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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7.09Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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6.32George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.32Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.78Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
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9.81University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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11.74University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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8.69University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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15.09Texas A&M University0.510.0%1st Place
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14.26University of Minnesota0.840.0%1st Place
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14.18University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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11.69Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reynolds | 12.6% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Golden | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 7.9% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Timothy Siemers | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| John Coakley | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 16.3% | 10.2% | 3.7% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Erin Hawk | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 22.3% | 42.1% |
| Eric Villadsen | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 26.3% | 24.7% |
| Connor Hughes | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 17.9% | 22.3% | 22.6% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 10.0% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.