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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.21+5.87vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+3.56vs Predicted
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3George Washington University3.41+3.42vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.98+3.94vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.61+0.63vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.47+0.40vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.80+1.59vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-1.13vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College2.70+0.08vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.88+1.64vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.65-5.21vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.85-0.31vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California2.47-3.16vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.27-6.96vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota0.84-0.71vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University0.51-0.89vs Predicted
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17University of Washington0.95-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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5.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.42George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.94Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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5.63Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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6.4Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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8.59University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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6.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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9.08Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
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11.64Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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5.79College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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11.69University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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9.84University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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7.04Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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14.29University of Minnesota0.840.0%1st Place
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15.11Texas A&M University0.510.0%1st Place
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14.2University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh MacGillivray | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 12.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Golden | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Eddie Cox | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Siemers | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Jake Reynolds | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 16.1% | 11.2% | 3.8% |
| John Coakley | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Allman | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eric Villadsen | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 15.9% | 24.2% | 26.3% |
| Erin Hawk | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 21.7% | 41.5% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 24.6% | 23.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.