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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.61+4.61vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.80+6.52vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.65+2.70vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+1.74vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.41+1.29vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.27+1.04vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+0.04vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.47+1.53vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.21-1.71vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.85+1.74vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.98-2.89vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.51-5.90vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College2.72-4.01vs Predicted
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14University of Washington0.95+0.18vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota0.84-0.71vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.88-4.24vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University0.51-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.61Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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8.52University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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5.7College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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5.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.29George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.04Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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9.53University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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7.29Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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11.74University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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8.11Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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6.1Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.99Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
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14.18University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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14.29University of Minnesota0.840.0%1st Place
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11.76Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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15.07Texas A&M University0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lalumiere | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jake Reynolds | 10.9% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 11.6% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Eddie Cox | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John Coakley | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 17.0% | 24.6% | 23.6% |
| Eric Villadsen | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 26.4% | 25.7% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 4.2% |
| Erin Hawk | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 21.3% | 41.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.