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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.65+4.55vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.51+4.04vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.69vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.98+4.01vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.80+3.50vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.21+1.35vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41-0.55vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.70+0.82vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.27-1.84vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-3.01vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.61-5.00vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.84-0.15vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California2.47-3.07vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.15-3.00vs Predicted
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15Texas A&M University0.51-0.04vs Predicted
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16University of Washington0.95-1.77vs Predicted
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17University of Minnesota0.84-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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6.04Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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5.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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8.01Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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8.5University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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7.35Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.45George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.82Eckerd College2.700.1%1st Place
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7.16Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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6.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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6.0Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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11.85University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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9.93University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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11.0Jacksonville University2.150.0%1st Place
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14.96Texas A&M University0.510.0%1st Place
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14.23University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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14.46University of Minnesota0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reynolds | 13.6% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Siemers | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 11.8% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 11.5% | 4.5% |
| John Coakley | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Peter Steo | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 1.7% |
| Erin Hawk | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 21.6% | 41.8% |
| Connor Hughes | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 17.4% | 23.6% | 22.8% |
| Eric Villadsen | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 25.3% | 27.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.