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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.51+5.04vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.21+5.08vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+4.06vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.41+2.57vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.65+0.59vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.61-0.03vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.84+4.85vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.43vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.98-0.87vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-4.34vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.27-3.87vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California2.47-2.27vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University2.15-2.04vs Predicted
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14University of Washington0.95+0.24vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College2.70-6.06vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University0.51-0.90vs Predicted
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17University of Minnesota0.84-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.08Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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7.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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6.57George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.59College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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5.97Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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11.85University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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8.43University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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8.13Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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5.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.13Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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9.73University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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10.96Jacksonville University2.150.0%1st Place
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14.24University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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8.94Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
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15.1Texas A&M University0.510.0%1st Place
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14.51University of Minnesota0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jake Reynolds | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Wolters | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 16.0% | 11.8% | 3.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Nikole Barnes | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Allman | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Peter Steo | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 1.8% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 17.8% | 24.1% | 24.7% |
| Timothy Siemers | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Erin Hawk | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 13.6% | 22.5% | 40.6% |
| Eric Villadsen | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 16.5% | 24.8% | 27.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.