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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.65+4.64vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.21+5.18vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.78vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.72+5.04vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.48+1.21vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.92vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.47+2.91vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University2.15+2.74vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.98-0.75vs Predicted
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10George Washington University3.41-3.55vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.61-4.93vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-4.81vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.51-6.65vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.85-1.92vs Predicted
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15University of Washington0.95-0.82vs Predicted
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16University of Minnesota1.18-2.21vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University0.51-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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7.18Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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5.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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9.04Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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6.21Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.92University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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9.91University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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10.74Jacksonville University2.150.0%1st Place
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8.25Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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6.45George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.07Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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7.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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6.35Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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12.08University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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14.18University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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13.79University of Minnesota1.180.0%1st Place
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15.22Texas A&M University0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reynolds | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 11.5% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| John Coakley | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Peter Steo | 3.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 2.8% |
| Stewart Draheim | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 13.2% | 5.2% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 24.8% | 26.2% |
| Isabella Hamilton | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 19.6% | 21.4% | 17.7% |
| Erin Hawk | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 21.0% | 45.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.