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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.21+5.85vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+4.84vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.60vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.61+1.78vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.41+1.19vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.48+0.29vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.72+1.77vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.88+3.29vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.98-0.99vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.47-0.45vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.84+0.72vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.65-6.39vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.06-5.27vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.80-5.43vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota0.84-0.93vs Predicted
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16University of Washington0.95-2.02vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University-0.40-0.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.85Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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5.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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5.78Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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6.19George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.29Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.77Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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11.29Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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8.01Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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9.55University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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5.61College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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7.73Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.57University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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14.07University of Minnesota0.840.0%1st Place
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13.98University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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16.15Texas A&M University-0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh MacGillivray | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 11.1% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 10.9% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 10.4% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 1.8% |
| Stewart Draheim | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Mason Wolters | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 16.9% | 10.6% | 2.7% |
| Jake Reynolds | 11.4% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Eric Villadsen | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 12.1% | 17.8% | 31.1% | 14.3% |
| Connor Hughes | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 22.0% | 25.7% | 13.6% |
| Carson Pepper | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 16.1% | 67.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.