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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+4.42vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.06+5.50vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.98+4.79vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.48+2.19vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.21+1.92vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.88+5.66vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.65-1.41vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-1.19vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College2.72-0.14vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.61-4.38vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.80-2.43vs Predicted
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12George Washington University3.41-5.69vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California2.47-3.27vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.84-2.29vs Predicted
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15University of Washington0.95-1.21vs Predicted
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16University of Minnesota0.84-1.84vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University-0.71-0.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.5Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.79Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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6.19Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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6.92Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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11.66Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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5.59College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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6.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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8.86Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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5.62Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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8.57University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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6.31George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.73University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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11.71University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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13.79University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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14.16University of Minnesota0.840.0%1st Place
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16.37Texas A&M University-0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 13.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 10.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.1% |
| Jake Reynolds | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 10.1% | 1.1% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 18.9% | 31.6% | 9.4% |
| Eric Villadsen | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 22.6% | 31.0% | 11.8% |
| Morgan Frakes | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 74.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.