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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+8.04vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.80+10.70vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.67+5.88vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida2.92+7.74vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.74+3.31vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.70+2.57vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.71+1.51vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.65+0.72vs Predicted
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9George Washington University3.41+0.82vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.24-3.47vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.48-1.36vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.47-2.08vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.21-2.52vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-4.84vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.11-3.88vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-5.36vs Predicted
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17Boston College3.73-8.40vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy3.63-9.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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12.7University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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8.88Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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11.74University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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8.31Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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8.57Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.51Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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8.72College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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9.82George Washington University3.410.0%1st Place
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6.53Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.64Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.92Georgetown University3.470.0%1st Place
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10.48Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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9.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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11.12Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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10.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.0%1st Place
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8.6Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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8.63U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 19.6% |
| Augie Dale | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Andrew Baird | 3.3% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 14.5% |
| Will La Dow | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| Martim Anderson | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Jake Reynolds | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Kai Friesecke | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% |
| Sean Golden | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 11.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% |
| Charles Sinks | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| Gary Prieto | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.