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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.47+8.76vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+7.33vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.80+9.73vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.73+4.35vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+3.72vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.71+2.50vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.21+3.72vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.41+1.72vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.67-0.36vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.44+0.03vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.74-2.43vs Predicted
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12Yale University4.24-5.34vs Predicted
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13Fordham University3.25-2.61vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.92-2.37vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-5.53vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.65-7.13vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.70-8.34vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.27-7.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.76Georgetown University3.470.0%1st Place
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9.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.0%1st Place
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12.73University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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8.35Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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8.5Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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10.72Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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9.72George Washington University3.410.0%1st Place
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8.64Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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8.57Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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6.66Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.39Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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11.63University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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9.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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8.87College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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8.66Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.26Brown University3.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Golden | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% |
| Charles Miller | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 20.7% |
| Charles Sinks | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% |
| Nikole Barnes | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Kai Friesecke | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% |
| Augie Dale | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Michael Popp | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| Will La Dow | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Andrew Baird | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 15.1% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
| Jake Reynolds | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% |
| Ryan Astwood | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.