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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.71+4.33vs Predicted
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2Stanford University1.00+5.79vs Predicted
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3Yale University1.57+2.92vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.85+2.29vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.52+1.08vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston1.26+0.69vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.10-0.52vs Predicted
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8George Washington University0.93+0.40vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.18-1.38vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.82-1.65vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.94vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.12-1.55vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont-0.05-1.56vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania-0.50-1.81vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.54-6.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.33Dartmouth College1.7112.3%1st Place
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7.79Stanford University1.005.9%1st Place
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5.92Yale University1.5711.3%1st Place
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6.29Brown University1.859.6%1st Place
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6.08Old Dominion University1.5210.2%1st Place
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6.69College of Charleston1.268.6%1st Place
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6.48Harvard University2.108.6%1st Place
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8.4George Washington University0.935.0%1st Place
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7.62Northeastern University1.186.5%1st Place
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8.35Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.825.9%1st Place
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8.06U. S. Naval Academy1.185.4%1st Place
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10.45University of Rhode Island0.123.2%1st Place
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11.44University of Vermont-0.051.7%1st Place
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12.19University of Pennsylvania-0.501.2%1st Place
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8.91Tufts University0.544.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bella casaretto | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ava Cornell | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Audrey Foley | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Laura Hamilton | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Marina Conde | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Emily Alfortish | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Cordelia Burn | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Karya Basaraner | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 4.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 16.4% | 14.1% |
| Ella Towner | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 18.2% | 25.4% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 37.4% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.