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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.01+7.96vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.01+3.23vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.23+5.24vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+8.50vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.76+4.90vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.25+2.41vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.42+0.48vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.72-1.74vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-2.08vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.34+1.64vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College3.18-2.36vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.42-0.57vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.24-4.69vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.53-6.83vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.01-5.92vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.72-5.72vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.96College of Charleston3.010.1%1st Place
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5.23Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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8.24Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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12.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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9.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.760.0%1st Place
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8.41Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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7.48Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.26Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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6.92Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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11.64Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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8.64Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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11.43Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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8.31Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.17Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.08Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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10.28Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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12.54SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe Killian | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| Erika Reineke | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conner Harding | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 22.6% |
| Kyle Burgess | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Joseph Kiss | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Stewart | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 13.9% |
| Jack McGuire | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 14.1% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Gabriel Elstrodt | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.6% |
| John Lawless | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 21.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.