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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.74+4.65vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+4.19vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.53+3.49vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.68+5.69vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.20+2.59vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.48+0.90vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48-0.22vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.42+5.54vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.50-2.16vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.93-1.35vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.28-3.35vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.91-3.18vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.87-3.83vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.26-2.65vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.05-3.10vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.53-5.62vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.67-1.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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6.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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6.49Brown University3.530.1%1st Place
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9.69U. S. Naval Academy2.680.0%1st Place
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7.59College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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6.9Tufts University3.480.1%1st Place
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6.78St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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13.54University of South Florida1.420.0%1st Place
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6.84Boston College3.500.1%1st Place
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8.65University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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7.65Georgetown University3.280.1%1st Place
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8.82Eckerd College2.910.1%1st Place
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9.17Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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11.35Stanford University2.260.0%1st Place
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11.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.050.0%1st Place
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10.38Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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15.41William and Mary0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlena Fauer | 13.2% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Patten | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jennifer Adler | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sara Burke | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 1.3% |
| Grace Lucas | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Natalie Salk | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mayumi Roller | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Casey Bowles-Jenner | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 23.5% | 23.0% |
| Emily Maxwell | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Nancy Hagood | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Kaye Siemers | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Corina Radtke | 5.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Tally Buckstaff | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 4.8% |
| Jaimie Chicoine | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 16.9% | 7.2% |
| Caitlin Watson | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 2.8% |
| Erin Kwon | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 17.0% | 56.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.