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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+1.98vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.49+3.50vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.43+2.71vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.54+1.54vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.62+2.87vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook0.79+4.10vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.37-1.06vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.65-0.37vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.16-5.10vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.50-4.45vs Predicted
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11Villanova University1.15-1.96vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo-0.79+1.52vs Predicted
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13Colgate University-0.40-0.24vs Predicted
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15University of Delaware-0.30-2.54vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-0.78-2.45vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute-1.01-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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5.5George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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5.71Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.54Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.87Queen's University1.620.0%1st Place
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10.1SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
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5.94Cornell University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.63Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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3.9Fordham University3.160.2%1st Place
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5.55U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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9.04Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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13.52University of Buffalo-0.790.0%1st Place
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12.76Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
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12.46University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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13.55Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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13.95Webb Institute-1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 28.1% | 21.4% | 18.1% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 7.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Thompson | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Luke Andersen | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 18.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 15.7% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jessica Abriss | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 16.2% | 20.7% | 23.7% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 12.9% | 17.3% | 18.8% | 16.3% | 11.6% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 18.9% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 8.9% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 22.3% | 23.2% |
| Muriel Weathers | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 16.4% | 21.1% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.