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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.49+4.49vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.37+3.86vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.16+0.94vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.54+1.53vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.50+0.58vs Predicted
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6Villanova University1.15+3.32vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.43-1.17vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.62-0.16vs Predicted
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9Colgate University-0.40+3.89vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.65-2.09vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook0.79-0.85vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-0.30+0.75vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute-0.15-0.62vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-0.78-0.33vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo-0.79-2.21vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-13.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.49George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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5.86Cornell University2.370.1%1st Place
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3.94Fordham University3.160.2%1st Place
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5.53Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.58U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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9.32Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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5.83Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.84Queen's University1.620.0%1st Place
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12.89Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
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7.91Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.15SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
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12.75University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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12.38Webb Institute-0.150.0%1st Place
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13.67Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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13.79University of Buffalo-0.790.0%1st Place
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3.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Poon Tip | 8.4% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Andersen | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 17.1% | 16.6% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 8.4% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Balk | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Thompson | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 15.7% | 16.3% | 20.7% | 14.8% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| James Gilmore III | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 17.8% | 17.4% | 14.2% |
| Isaac Wilson | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 14.2% | 17.9% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 10.1% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 16.5% | 20.5% | 27.9% |
| Jessica Abriss | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 16.2% | 21.2% | 30.9% |
| Charles Miller | 27.4% | 19.9% | 18.5% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.