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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+2.02vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.16+1.96vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.37+2.90vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.49+1.62vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.62+2.97vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.65+1.93vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.50-1.38vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.43-2.40vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.15+0.18vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook0.79+0.25vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-0.30+1.68vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-0.40+0.98vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute-0.15-0.61vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo-0.79-1.32vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-0.78-2.27vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.54-11.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.3%1st Place
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3.96Fordham University3.160.2%1st Place
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5.9Cornell University2.370.1%1st Place
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5.62George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
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7.97Queen's University1.620.0%1st Place
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7.93Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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5.62U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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5.6Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.18Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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10.25SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
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12.68University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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12.98Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
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12.39Webb Institute-0.150.0%1st Place
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13.68University of Buffalo-0.790.0%1st Place
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13.73Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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5.48Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 27.9% | 21.6% | 16.6% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 18.3% | 15.7% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Andersen | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 7.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Thompson | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 16.0% | 17.9% | 17.9% | 13.4% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 17.0% | 19.8% | 16.5% |
| Isaac Wilson | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 10.0% |
| Jessica Abriss | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 16.5% | 18.7% | 29.5% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 22.3% | 29.1% |
| Connor Kelter | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.