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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+5.29vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+4.77vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.48+3.81vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.93+4.89vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.28+2.44vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.53+0.83vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.74-1.08vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.53+2.10vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.68+1.07vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College2.91-1.19vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.50-4.06vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.20-4.09vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.87-3.69vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.92-4.95vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.05-3.01vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.42-2.08vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.31-1.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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6.77St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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6.81Tufts University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.89University of Vermont2.930.1%1st Place
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7.44Georgetown University3.280.1%1st Place
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6.83Brown University3.530.1%1st Place
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5.92Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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10.1Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Naval Academy2.680.0%1st Place
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8.81Eckerd College2.910.0%1st Place
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6.94Boston College3.500.1%1st Place
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7.91College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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9.31Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.05Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
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11.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.050.0%1st Place
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13.92University of South Florida1.420.0%1st Place
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15.94William and Mary0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Patten | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Natalie Salk | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Nancy Hagood | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Jennifer Adler | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 2.1% |
| Sara Burke | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 1.5% |
| Kaye Siemers | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Emily Maxwell | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Grace Lucas | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Corina Radtke | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Hannah Burroughs | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Jaimie Chicoine | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 16.2% | 17.0% | 6.5% |
| Casey Bowles-Jenner | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 15.5% | 30.7% | 18.2% |
| Meghan Tamminen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 15.3% | 67.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.