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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.26+2.89vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.37+4.57vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.16+4.44vs Predicted
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4McGill University1.00+7.58vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.70+3.96vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.10+1.86vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.49+2.87vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.10-0.49vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire1.74+0.15vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.76-1.21vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.80-2.14vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-4.39vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.14-8.60vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.61-4.39vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.10-3.79vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut0.00-2.55vs Predicted
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18Sacred Heart University-0.40-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.89Tufts University3.260.2%1st Place
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6.57Roger Williams University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.44University of Rhode Island2.160.1%1st Place
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11.58McGill University1.000.0%1st Place
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8.96Brown University1.700.0%1st Place
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7.86Roger Williams University2.100.1%1st Place
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9.87Yale University1.490.0%1st Place
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7.51Boston University2.100.1%1st Place
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9.15University of New Hampshire1.740.0%1st Place
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8.79Connecticut College1.760.0%1st Place
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8.86University of Vermont1.800.0%1st Place
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7.61Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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4.4Tufts University3.140.2%1st Place
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9.61Northeastern University1.610.0%1st Place
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11.21Salve Regina University1.100.0%1st Place
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14.45University of Connecticut0.000.0%1st Place
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15.25Sacred Heart University-0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Tong | 23.3% | 15.8% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Neal | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sam Rush | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Markus Suorsa | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 5.6% |
| Henry Sharpe | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Nathaniel Estes | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Charles Skoda | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.6% |
| Michael Sabourin | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| James Amaral | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Julia Leighton | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Charles Hicks | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Bowen | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Jackson McCoy | 17.0% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matteo Alampi | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Lucie Ford | 1.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 4.7% |
| Michael Connolly | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 26.6% | 31.4% |
| Rebecca Rutkiewicz | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 19.6% | 50.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.