Race 1A

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Josh Dochoda 7.5% 9.0% 7.1% 9.7% 9.5% 10.1% 9.9% 10.0% 10.4% 6.9% 6.6% 2.7% 0.6%
Rachel Bryer 19.3% 18.4% 15.2% 14.8% 10.1% 7.4% 5.7% 4.6% 2.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2%
Cameron Loncoski 3.5% 4.7% 5.2% 6.6% 7.5% 8.4% 8.5% 9.2% 10.3% 13.4% 12.2% 8.7% 1.8%
Scott Barbano 13.8% 13.2% 13.1% 12.4% 10.2% 10.6% 9.5% 7.3% 5.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3%
John Wehner 5.5% 5.3% 4.4% 7.0% 6.9% 7.8% 7.8% 9.4% 11.2% 13.1% 10.6% 8.2% 2.8%
William Crary 8.2% 8.3% 9.9% 8.2% 9.0% 10.3% 9.5% 9.2% 9.2% 9.6% 4.8% 3.3% 0.5%
Matthew Lyons 9.3% 6.6% 8.1% 8.6% 7.2% 8.9% 11.4% 9.1% 10.3% 8.9% 7.0% 4.0% 0.6%
Sean Beaulieu 4.0% 5.3% 4.2% 3.6% 5.8% 7.7% 7.3% 9.3% 10.4% 12.1% 16.6% 10.2% 3.5%
Jennifer Lee 1.3% 1.4% 2.5% 1.4% 3.0% 2.7% 3.2% 3.5% 4.1% 7.3% 12.1% 33.5% 24.0%
Wade Waddell 13.3% 11.6% 14.3% 9.7% 12.6% 8.4% 8.2% 8.1% 5.3% 3.7% 3.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Frank Reeg 4.1% 4.5% 5.2% 5.5% 7.4% 6.0% 8.3% 8.8% 11.7% 11.7% 14.9% 7.7% 4.2%
Hugh MacGillivray 9.7% 11.1% 10.6% 11.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.4% 9.8% 7.8% 5.4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5%
Amy Macdonald 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 1.8% 3.9% 6.5% 18.8% 60.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.