Race 3A

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Wade Waddell 12.9% 11.7% 12.0% 11.5% 11.1% 9.3% 8.6% 9.8% 5.5% 3.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Scott Barbano 13.0% 14.5% 13.5% 11.6% 11.2% 10.6% 8.3% 5.8% 6.0% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Rachel Bryer 20.4% 17.4% 15.8% 11.9% 11.5% 7.9% 6.6% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Josh Dochoda 7.6% 8.4% 8.5% 9.0% 9.2% 10.6% 9.9% 8.7% 10.0% 9.0% 5.4% 3.1% 0.6%
John Wehner 5.1% 5.8% 4.5% 6.6% 7.0% 9.3% 7.6% 8.5% 11.9% 10.9% 11.6% 8.8% 2.4%
Hugh MacGillivray 10.9% 11.7% 11.9% 11.8% 9.4% 9.4% 9.5% 8.9% 6.1% 5.9% 2.9% 1.5% 0.1%
Cameron Loncoski 5.8% 4.9% 5.9% 7.1% 7.1% 5.8% 7.5% 10.8% 9.0% 14.0% 12.0% 8.2% 1.9%
Frank Reeg 3.8% 5.3% 4.6% 4.1% 5.4% 7.1% 8.8% 9.5% 11.3% 11.0% 16.2% 10.7% 2.2%
William Crary 8.0% 7.5% 8.7% 9.0% 10.4% 10.6% 9.2% 9.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.2% 2.8% 0.9%
Sean Beaulieu 4.3% 5.1% 3.9% 5.7% 5.5% 6.6% 9.3% 9.0% 9.5% 11.2% 14.3% 11.0% 4.6%
Jennifer Lee 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% 3.6% 3.6% 4.4% 5.7% 8.8% 13.2% 30.2% 22.8%
Matthew Lyons 6.5% 6.1% 8.8% 9.4% 8.2% 8.0% 10.0% 9.5% 12.0% 9.0% 7.4% 4.1% 1.0%
Amy Macdonald 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.7% 2.2% 3.6% 5.3% 18.2% 62.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.