Race 4A

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Josh Dochoda 8.1% 7.3% 10.2% 8.3% 10.6% 8.6% 10.0% 10.1% 8.8% 9.4% 5.4% 2.5% 0.7%
Rachel Bryer 19.8% 18.1% 15.3% 13.6% 10.0% 7.7% 7.0% 4.2% 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Wade Waddell 11.0% 13.4% 12.3% 11.8% 9.6% 10.1% 11.3% 7.7% 5.5% 4.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Cameron Loncoski 3.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.8% 7.2% 8.6% 7.7% 9.4% 10.0% 12.9% 12.6% 9.0% 2.1%
John Wehner 5.5% 4.8% 5.1% 6.6% 8.2% 8.6% 6.3% 9.2% 10.8% 12.5% 12.3% 7.7% 2.4%
Matthew Lyons 7.8% 7.3% 8.7% 7.8% 8.6% 10.1% 10.1% 8.5% 12.0% 7.4% 8.0% 3.4% 0.3%
Scott Barbano 14.1% 15.9% 11.8% 11.4% 10.5% 10.1% 7.5% 7.5% 4.9% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Sean Beaulieu 3.8% 4.4% 4.6% 5.2% 6.5% 5.7% 7.7% 10.5% 10.8% 12.7% 15.1% 9.8% 3.2%
Hugh MacGillivray 10.7% 10.1% 11.3% 11.2% 9.8% 10.6% 10.2% 6.9% 7.5% 5.5% 4.2% 1.8% 0.2%
William Crary 9.1% 7.7% 8.7% 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 9.9% 8.6% 9.8% 7.4% 6.5% 3.0% 0.7%
Frank Reeg 4.5% 3.9% 4.6% 6.3% 6.1% 7.4% 7.8% 11.3% 10.2% 11.0% 12.4% 10.8% 3.7%
Amy Macdonald 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.4% 2.5% 4.1% 7.1% 16.7% 61.3%
Jennifer Lee 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 2.7% 4.7% 5.6% 6.6% 12.5% 33.6% 25.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.