Race 5A

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Wade Waddell 12.6% 12.8% 11.1% 11.6% 11.7% 10.0% 8.3% 8.9% 5.2% 3.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
John Wehner 4.5% 4.6% 6.1% 5.9% 6.9% 7.4% 8.0% 10.4% 11.0% 11.0% 13.2% 8.3% 2.7%
Josh Dochoda 7.0% 7.7% 10.0% 9.6% 8.9% 9.9% 9.0% 10.4% 9.7% 8.9% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6%
Rachel Bryer 20.1% 18.3% 14.5% 12.1% 11.2% 9.2% 5.4% 4.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Matthew Lyons 8.5% 7.3% 8.9% 8.2% 8.4% 8.9% 9.6% 8.3% 12.4% 8.4% 6.4% 4.0% 0.7%
Cameron Loncoski 4.9% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 6.7% 8.3% 8.5% 8.6% 11.2% 10.7% 12.7% 8.8% 2.2%
William Crary 9.1% 8.6% 8.8% 8.6% 9.2% 9.0% 9.6% 9.3% 9.3% 9.6% 5.6% 2.6% 0.7%
Scott Barbano 13.2% 14.8% 12.4% 12.4% 11.1% 9.6% 11.3% 6.3% 3.6% 3.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Jennifer Lee 1.1% 1.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.7% 2.2% 3.1% 3.7% 5.3% 8.0% 9.9% 30.3% 27.6%
Sean Beaulieu 5.1% 3.0% 4.9% 5.7% 5.5% 7.0% 7.8% 10.5% 8.8% 11.6% 14.1% 12.5% 3.5%
Amy Macdonald 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 4.7% 8.3% 19.0% 56.5%
Frank Reeg 3.8% 4.6% 4.1% 5.3% 5.5% 6.7% 8.1% 7.3% 10.8% 14.3% 15.0% 9.6% 4.9%
Hugh MacGillivray 9.6% 11.0% 10.5% 11.3% 11.5% 10.0% 9.4% 9.5% 7.6% 4.2% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.