Race 6A

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
John Wehner 4.9% 4.4% 4.0% 6.7% 8.6% 7.9% 6.6% 10.3% 11.0% 12.9% 13.0% 7.9% 1.8%
Scott Barbano 13.2% 12.4% 14.5% 11.6% 12.7% 9.6% 7.5% 7.5% 4.9% 3.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Rachel Bryer 19.2% 19.7% 14.2% 12.6% 10.0% 8.9% 7.3% 4.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Wade Waddell 12.1% 13.2% 12.0% 11.8% 10.7% 7.6% 9.7% 9.5% 6.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Josh Dochoda 8.3% 9.8% 8.0% 10.1% 9.0% 8.9% 10.6% 9.4% 8.8% 7.6% 6.6% 2.5% 0.4%
Cameron Loncoski 5.4% 3.7% 5.9% 6.8% 7.2% 7.4% 8.1% 9.8% 11.3% 12.0% 12.1% 8.3% 2.0%
Matthew Lyons 9.0% 6.8% 8.7% 7.4% 8.7% 9.1% 9.8% 9.4% 9.5% 11.2% 6.1% 3.7% 0.6%
Hugh MacGillivray 10.0% 11.6% 11.1% 11.0% 9.2% 12.4% 9.9% 7.5% 6.7% 5.7% 3.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Sean Beaulieu 4.3% 3.4% 5.0% 5.5% 4.8% 6.8% 7.1% 9.0% 10.6% 13.6% 13.3% 13.4% 3.2%
Frank Reeg 4.5% 4.3% 4.6% 5.9% 6.2% 6.6% 7.9% 8.8% 10.9% 10.7% 16.1% 9.3% 4.2%
William Crary 7.6% 8.9% 10.2% 7.9% 10.0% 10.8% 10.4% 9.7% 9.1% 7.1% 5.3% 2.7% 0.3%
Jennifer Lee 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 2.6% 4.0% 3.5% 6.5% 6.7% 12.1% 30.3% 27.1%
Amy Macdonald 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% 2.6% 3.9% 6.9% 19.1% 60.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.