Race 1B

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alexander Vasiliou 7.1% 8.0% 8.6% 10.9% 9.7% 8.9% 11.5% 11.1% 11.0% 6.2% 4.5% 2.3% 0.2%
Jan Kite-Powell 9.7% 10.2% 12.4% 8.5% 11.5% 12.0% 10.2% 9.9% 6.5% 5.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3%
John Rolander 22.8% 17.7% 15.8% 14.0% 9.7% 9.2% 4.6% 3.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Dakota Northrup 14.6% 16.1% 11.9% 15.1% 10.1% 10.1% 8.0% 6.9% 4.4% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Carter Pemberton 12.4% 11.3% 13.1% 9.7% 10.6% 11.9% 10.7% 8.4% 5.5% 4.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Collin Alexander 9.9% 9.9% 10.2% 10.3% 10.8% 10.9% 10.5% 8.5% 9.0% 5.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3%
Chris Colbeth 4.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.3% 5.2% 6.7% 6.3% 6.9% 10.8% 14.2% 15.3% 14.2% 5.6%
Allison Fusaro 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 3.1% 3.9% 7.4% 11.8% 22.1% 41.4%
Kyle Brego 3.3% 3.6% 3.1% 4.3% 5.1% 4.9% 7.5% 8.6% 12.2% 13.4% 15.2% 13.0% 5.8%
Matthew Moss-Hawkins 0.9% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 3.9% 6.4% 10.3% 13.8% 20.8% 31.7%
Brian Baker 3.3% 3.7% 5.8% 5.5% 6.2% 7.4% 8.4% 11.9% 12.6% 13.0% 11.7% 7.7% 2.8%
Jack Gould 1.5% 3.3% 2.0% 3.0% 4.8% 4.1% 5.7% 8.6% 9.2% 13.6% 17.1% 15.7% 11.4%
Drake Lyon 9.7% 11.1% 10.8% 10.6% 11.7% 9.8% 12.3% 8.9% 6.6% 4.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.