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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+5.32vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.53+4.52vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+3.83vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.93+4.96vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.48+1.67vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.20+2.05vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.91+1.97vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.53+2.14vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.92+0.09vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.50-3.30vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.74-4.95vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.28-4.40vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.05-0.85vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.68-3.97vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.87-5.91vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.42-2.12vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.31-1.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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6.52Brown University3.530.1%1st Place
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6.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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8.96University of Vermont2.930.1%1st Place
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6.67Tufts University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.05College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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8.97Eckerd College2.910.1%1st Place
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10.14Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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9.09Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
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6.7Boston College3.500.1%1st Place
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6.05Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.6Georgetown University3.280.1%1st Place
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12.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.050.0%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Naval Academy2.680.0%1st Place
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9.09Old Dominion University2.870.0%1st Place
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13.88University of South Florida1.420.0%1st Place
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15.95William and Mary0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Patten | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Adler | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 0.6% |
| Natalie Salk | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Grace Lucas | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Kaye Siemers | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Caitlin Watson | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 1.5% |
| Hannah Burroughs | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Emily Maxwell | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Marlena Fauer | 12.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nancy Hagood | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Jaimie Chicoine | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 8.4% |
| Sara Burke | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 6.0% | 1.4% |
| Corina Radtke | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Casey Bowles-Jenner | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 33.1% | 17.2% |
| Meghan Tamminen | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 14.2% | 67.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.