Race 2B

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
John Rolander 22.5% 18.0% 18.2% 12.5% 10.6% 7.3% 5.2% 3.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Carter Pemberton 11.1% 11.5% 12.4% 11.8% 11.9% 10.3% 10.5% 7.9% 6.4% 3.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Alexander Vasiliou 6.9% 9.1% 8.3% 9.3% 9.0% 10.1% 11.0% 12.2% 9.1% 8.9% 4.4% 1.4% 0.3%
Jan Kite-Powell 10.2% 9.8% 10.2% 11.7% 11.2% 10.4% 10.6% 8.7% 9.1% 4.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4%
Jack Gould 2.8% 3.3% 1.8% 4.4% 3.8% 5.3% 6.3% 8.1% 10.4% 12.6% 16.0% 16.5% 8.7%
Drake Lyon 11.0% 12.4% 10.9% 11.6% 9.7% 11.9% 9.6% 7.8% 7.9% 3.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Chris Colbeth 3.4% 3.6% 3.3% 5.2% 4.2% 5.8% 6.4% 8.6% 10.7% 13.7% 14.6% 15.6% 4.9%
Dakota Northrup 15.1% 15.0% 14.4% 11.5% 14.0% 10.8% 9.0% 4.5% 2.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Collin Alexander 9.4% 8.8% 10.2% 10.6% 10.9% 11.0% 9.5% 10.1% 8.1% 5.6% 4.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Kyle Brego 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 4.7% 4.6% 5.5% 7.9% 10.4% 11.3% 13.8% 14.7% 10.9% 6.1%
Matthew Moss-Hawkins 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 2.0% 3.3% 3.5% 5.1% 5.9% 9.6% 13.5% 25.3% 27.6%
Allison Fusaro 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 1.2% 2.8% 2.7% 5.0% 7.1% 11.0% 17.0% 48.1%
Brian Baker 2.8% 3.5% 4.8% 4.5% 6.2% 7.1% 7.7% 10.9% 12.0% 13.9% 14.0% 9.2% 3.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.