Race 3B

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jack Gould 1.9% 2.5% 3.3% 3.4% 4.3% 5.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.9% 14.4% 17.1% 14.6% 8.6%
Jan Kite-Powell 10.6% 10.7% 10.4% 10.9% 11.7% 11.8% 10.4% 9.2% 6.4% 4.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Drake Lyon 9.7% 12.9% 9.7% 12.2% 10.6% 12.5% 11.3% 8.7% 6.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
Jennifer Killian 2.2% 2.9% 4.1% 3.2% 5.7% 5.2% 7.0% 8.2% 12.1% 15.0% 14.9% 13.9% 5.6%
John Rolander 23.9% 19.7% 15.2% 13.7% 10.7% 6.6% 4.9% 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Kyle Brego 3.3% 2.8% 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% 6.6% 7.6% 10.2% 10.5% 15.2% 13.7% 12.0% 5.0%
Dakota Northrup 16.2% 13.6% 15.1% 13.2% 12.1% 9.2% 7.5% 6.4% 3.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Collin Alexander 9.9% 10.1% 10.5% 9.5% 10.1% 11.5% 12.0% 10.6% 7.6% 4.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Chris Colbeth 3.1% 4.1% 3.3% 4.1% 4.1% 5.6% 6.7% 8.4% 13.4% 12.9% 15.0% 12.5% 6.8%
Alexander Vasiliou 8.0% 7.9% 9.0% 10.4% 11.3% 10.3% 9.7% 9.4% 10.1% 7.2% 4.8% 1.4% 0.5%
Allison Fusaro 0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 2.6% 2.6% 3.7% 5.0% 8.2% 12.2% 20.2% 40.8%
Matthew Moss-Hawkins 0.8% 1.1% 2.1% 0.7% 2.3% 1.8% 3.0% 4.8% 8.0% 8.5% 12.2% 22.7% 32.0%
Carter Pemberton 9.7% 11.3% 11.9% 13.4% 11.1% 11.3% 10.3% 9.7% 5.3% 3.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.