Race 4B

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alexander Vasiliou 7.2% 8.9% 8.0% 10.1% 10.3% 10.3% 12.3% 10.3% 8.9% 6.9% 4.3% 2.0% 0.5%
Kyle Brego 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 4.5% 5.8% 6.3% 6.1% 8.8% 12.4% 15.9% 13.7% 11.0% 5.5%
John Rolander 22.4% 18.2% 16.9% 14.9% 10.1% 6.4% 5.6% 3.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Collin Alexander 8.0% 10.6% 10.6% 11.0% 10.6% 10.8% 11.3% 9.5% 8.6% 4.5% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2%
Chris Colbeth 3.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.7% 6.0% 5.1% 7.6% 9.8% 13.2% 10.7% 15.2% 12.6% 5.5%
Dakota Northrup 15.8% 16.2% 13.9% 12.0% 12.2% 10.1% 6.6% 6.9% 3.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Jan Kite-Powell 10.3% 11.6% 12.0% 10.5% 10.4% 10.3% 10.3% 9.0% 7.4% 5.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Jack Gould 2.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.7% 4.9% 4.7% 6.4% 8.5% 11.5% 12.4% 16.8% 14.9% 8.0%
Carter Pemberton 11.7% 10.1% 12.6% 10.4% 12.6% 11.6% 10.3% 8.5% 5.4% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
Drake Lyon 11.4% 10.7% 11.3% 12.8% 9.8% 12.1% 9.8% 8.2% 5.0% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5%
Allison Fusaro 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 2.6% 3.6% 3.5% 5.9% 7.4% 13.0% 19.4% 40.4%
Matthew Moss-Hawkins 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.3% 4.2% 6.3% 9.0% 12.0% 24.0% 32.3%
Jennifer Killian 2.6% 2.1% 2.9% 3.7% 4.0% 6.8% 7.8% 9.1% 11.4% 14.4% 15.6% 12.7% 6.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.