Race 5B

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Carter Pemberton 10.6% 12.2% 11.8% 12.9% 11.4% 12.2% 9.4% 8.1% 6.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Collin Alexander 8.2% 10.8% 10.2% 10.7% 10.9% 11.4% 9.5% 11.2% 9.2% 5.2% 2.4% 0.3%
Chris Colbeth 4.0% 2.5% 2.6% 5.2% 5.3% 6.0% 7.0% 9.5% 11.6% 15.1% 20.4% 10.8%
Alexander Vasiliou 6.7% 8.3% 10.2% 8.1% 12.7% 11.0% 10.9% 8.8% 9.8% 8.4% 3.9% 1.2%
Dakota Northrup 15.5% 16.3% 14.6% 11.4% 10.9% 9.4% 8.9% 5.8% 4.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.1%
Drake Lyon 10.9% 11.2% 10.4% 12.4% 10.5% 10.4% 13.1% 7.2% 8.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5%
Jan Kite-Powell 11.1% 9.5% 13.0% 11.6% 9.9% 10.3% 8.4% 11.6% 7.0% 5.3% 1.8% 0.5%
Allison Fusaro 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% 2.0% 1.3% 3.2% 2.5% 3.6% 4.7% 8.8% 15.5% 56.1%
Kyle Brego 2.6% 3.3% 3.2% 4.6% 5.4% 7.3% 8.7% 10.7% 13.1% 17.6% 14.9% 8.6%
Jack Gould 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 3.8% 3.7% 5.1% 7.2% 8.2% 12.3% 15.0% 21.9% 14.2%
Brian Baker 3.5% 3.8% 3.9% 5.2% 6.9% 6.3% 8.9% 11.6% 13.0% 15.0% 14.6% 7.3%
John Rolander 23.1% 18.8% 16.3% 12.1% 11.1% 7.4% 5.5% 3.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.