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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+5.51vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+3.53vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+3.14vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.88+2.75vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.51-0.33vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.78+1.17vs Predicted
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7Hampton University3.02-0.78vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech1.79+2.11vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.82-1.99vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.06-3.94vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook2.59-3.20vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech1.79-1.89vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.87-0.06vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.28+0.28vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.06-2.42vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.36-4.45vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-5.05vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.53St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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6.14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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6.75U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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4.67Georgetown University3.510.2%1st Place
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7.17George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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6.22Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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10.11Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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7.01Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.06Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.8SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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10.11Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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12.94William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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14.28Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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12.58University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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11.55Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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11.95Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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15.75University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 11.2% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 16.3% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 4.0% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 4.0% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 18.9% | 16.8% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 15.1% | 26.3% | 22.9% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Egan | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 17.5% | 15.9% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 58.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.