← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University3.06+4.64vs Predicted
-
2Old Dominion University2.89+4.18vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+2.28vs Predicted
-
4Virginia Tech1.79+5.78vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University2.82+1.36vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University3.51-1.41vs Predicted
-
7Virginia Tech1.79+2.78vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy2.88-1.67vs Predicted
-
9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.32vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Stony Brook2.59-2.56vs Predicted
-
11George Washington University2.78-4.53vs Predicted
-
12Hampton University1.08+0.10vs Predicted
-
13University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48+2.52vs Predicted
-
14Washington College1.26-2.45vs Predicted
-
15William and Mary0.87-2.29vs Predicted
-
16University of Pennsylvania1.06-3.98vs Predicted
-
17Ocean County College0.28-2.89vs Predicted
-
18Christopher Newport University1.36-6.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.64Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
-
6.18Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
-
5.28St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
-
9.78Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
-
6.36Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
-
4.59Georgetown University3.510.2%1st Place
-
9.78Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
-
6.33U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
-
5.68St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
-
7.44SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
-
6.47George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
-
12.1Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
-
15.52University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
-
11.55Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
-
12.71William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
-
12.02University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
-
14.11Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
-
11.22Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Dorr | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 11.7% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 8.9% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 15.2% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 56.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Egan | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 16.7% | 24.5% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.