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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.82+5.30vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.06+3.66vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+2.29vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.51+0.50vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.88+1.12vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.89+0.37vs Predicted
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7Hampton University1.08+5.01vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-2.32vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.78-2.25vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.28+4.06vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.79-1.07vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.36-0.80vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.06-0.87vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech1.79-4.07vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook2.59-7.71vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.87-3.46vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-5.44vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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5.66Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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5.29St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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4.5Georgetown University3.510.2%1st Place
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6.12U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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6.37Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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12.01Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.68St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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6.75George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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14.06Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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9.93Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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11.2Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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12.13University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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9.93Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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7.29SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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12.54William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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11.56Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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15.59University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dreugh Phillips | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 15.8% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 11.1% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 15.0% | 24.1% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Egan | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 16.3% | 17.2% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 56.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.