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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+5.17vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech1.79+7.71vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.78+3.60vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+1.39vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.06+0.64vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.82+0.58vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech1.79+2.71vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.88-1.68vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.30vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.36+1.33vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook2.59-3.88vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.06+0.11vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.08-1.02vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.87-1.37vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.26-3.38vs Predicted
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16Ocean County College0.28-2.02vs Predicted
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17University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48-1.46vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University3.51-13.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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9.71Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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6.6George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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5.39St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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5.64Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.58Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.71Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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6.32U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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5.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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11.33Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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7.12SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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12.11University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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11.98Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.63William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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11.62Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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13.98Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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15.54University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
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4.58Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 12.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 11.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 8.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 10.9% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Egan | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 15.0% | 21.8% | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 18.4% | 53.4% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 14.2% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.