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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.51+3.32vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+3.17vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.88+3.23vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+2.31vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+1.29vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.78+0.74vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech1.79+2.86vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook2.59-0.90vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.08vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.08+2.00vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.06-5.08vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.36-0.85vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech1.79-3.14vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.06-1.88vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.28-0.87vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.87-3.45vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-5.40vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.32Georgetown University3.510.2%1st Place
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5.17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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6.23U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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6.31Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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6.29Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.74George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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9.86Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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7.1SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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5.92St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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12.0Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.92Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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11.15Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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9.86Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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12.12University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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14.13Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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12.55William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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11.6Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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15.59University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 17.7% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 11.3% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 8.0% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Egan | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 25.7% | 21.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 19.1% | 14.3% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 54.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.