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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+5.50vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech1.79+8.19vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.51+1.76vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.82+2.97vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+1.05vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.79+4.19vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook2.59+0.78vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.78-1.02vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-3.44vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.06-3.70vs Predicted
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11Hampton University3.02-4.90vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.87+1.01vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.06-0.58vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.36-2.36vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.88-8.22vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.26-4.18vs Predicted
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17Ocean County College0.28-2.61vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48-2.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.5Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.19Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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4.76Georgetown University3.510.2%1st Place
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6.97Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.05St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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10.19Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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7.78SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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6.98George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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5.56St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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6.3Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.1Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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13.01William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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12.42University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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11.64Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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6.78U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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11.82Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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14.39Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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15.74University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 9.8% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 15.5% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 8.7% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 16.3% | 20.3% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Egan | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 17.9% | 26.8% | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 58.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.