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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.05vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+4.54vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.51+1.78vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+1.75vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.88+1.52vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.06+0.25vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.82-0.08vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook2.59-0.51vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech1.79+1.39vs Predicted
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10Hampton University3.02-3.89vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.79-0.61vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.87+1.03vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.36-1.43vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.26-2.07vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.06-2.45vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.78-8.96vs Predicted
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17Ocean County College0.28-2.66vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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6.54Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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4.78Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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5.75St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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6.52U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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6.25Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.92Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.49SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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10.39Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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6.11Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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10.39Virginia Tech1.790.0%1st Place
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13.03William and Mary0.870.0%1st Place
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11.57Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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11.93Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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12.55University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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7.04George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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14.34Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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15.73University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 13.7% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 12.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Bay | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mazzeo | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 18.7% | 18.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Samara Leith | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Egan | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 15.9% | 14.6% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 17.1% | 26.8% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Thompson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 16.3% | 57.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.