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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.45+5.00vs Predicted
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2Hampton University2.26+4.59vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.30+0.95vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech-1.79+12.11vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.39-1.33vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-1.94vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49-1.00vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.85-0.24vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.95-1.17vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook0.90+0.77vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.16-3.89vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.35-2.57vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.80-1.84vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.28-1.44vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.23-2.47vs Predicted
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16William and Mary-0.10-2.56vs Predicted
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17University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34-2.99vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech-1.79-1.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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6.59Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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3.95U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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16.11Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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3.67Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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4.06St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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6.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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7.76George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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7.83University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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10.77SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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7.11Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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9.43Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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11.16Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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12.56Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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12.53Ocean County College0.230.0%1st Place
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13.44William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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14.01University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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16.11Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 16.7% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 12.8% | 70.2% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 20.8% | 19.3% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 17.3% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Patterson | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 17.9% | 21.3% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 18.0% | 26.2% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 12.8% | 70.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.