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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+2.88vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+1.71vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.98vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.16+3.07vs Predicted
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5Hampton University2.26+1.61vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+0.20vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.45-0.79vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.95-0.47vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-1.79+7.24vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.85-2.16vs Predicted
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11William and Mary-0.10+2.39vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.35-2.57vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook0.90-2.18vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.23-1.33vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.80-4.00vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University0.28-3.55vs Predicted
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17University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34-3.03vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech-1.79-1.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.88U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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3.71Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.98St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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7.07Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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6.61Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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6.2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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6.21Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.53University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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16.24Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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7.84George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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13.39William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.43Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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10.82SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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12.67Ocean County College0.230.0%1st Place
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11.0Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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12.45Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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13.97University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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16.24Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 18.8% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 19.0% | 18.4% | 17.5% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 17.4% | 17.1% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 71.6% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 18.9% | 22.1% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Anna Patterson | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 17.8% | 13.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 15.8% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 13.0% | 17.6% | 27.1% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 71.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.