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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+2.86vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.16+4.89vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.96vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.95+3.62vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+0.94vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+0.84vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.35+2.43vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook0.90+2.61vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College0.23+3.74vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech-1.79+6.15vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.85-2.96vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.45-5.81vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.39-9.16vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.28-1.46vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.10-1.65vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.80-4.92vs Predicted
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17University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34-3.06vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech-1.79-1.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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6.89Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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3.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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7.62University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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5.94St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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6.84Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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9.43Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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10.61SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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12.74Ocean County College0.230.0%1st Place
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16.15Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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8.04George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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6.19Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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3.84Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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12.54Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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13.35William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.08Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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13.94University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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16.15Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 19.4% | 17.4% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 17.4% | 16.5% | 15.5% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Patterson | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 16.7% | 19.2% | 12.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 13.8% | 70.7% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 17.8% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 13.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 16.8% | 17.3% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 17.7% | 22.5% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 16.8% | 27.9% | 11.3% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 13.8% | 70.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.