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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+4.89vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+1.66vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.97vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.16+3.03vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.85+2.81vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech-1.79+10.18vs Predicted
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7Hampton University2.26-0.26vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.45-1.95vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.35+0.54vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.30-6.04vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.80+0.07vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.28+0.48vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.95-5.22vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.23-1.34vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.90-4.21vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34-2.05vs Predicted
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17William and Mary-0.10-3.55vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech-1.79-1.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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3.66Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.97St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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7.03Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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7.81George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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16.18Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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6.74Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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6.05Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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9.54Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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3.96U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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11.07Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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12.48Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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7.78University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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12.66Ocean County College0.230.0%1st Place
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10.79SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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13.95University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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13.45William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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16.18Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greer Wattson | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 19.7% | 16.7% | 17.9% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 17.3% | 17.4% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 11.9% | 71.8% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Patterson | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 18.0% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 18.7% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 16.8% | 28.2% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 18.7% | 21.5% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 11.9% | 71.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.