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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+4.93vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.88vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+0.76vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.30-0.03vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech-1.79+11.09vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.95+1.73vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook0.90+3.73vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.16-1.10vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.80+2.14vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.45-3.91vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.85-2.96vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.35-2.53vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.26-6.24vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.10-0.52vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34-1.13vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University0.28-3.46vs Predicted
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17Ocean County College0.23-4.40vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech-1.79-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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3.88St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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3.76Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.97U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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16.09Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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7.73University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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10.73SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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6.9Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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11.14Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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6.09Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.04George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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9.47Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.76Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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13.48William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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13.87University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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12.54Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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12.6Ocean County College0.230.0%1st Place
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16.09Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greer Wattson | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 18.9% | 16.0% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 17.6% | 18.8% | 17.0% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 18.8% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 13.7% | 67.4% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 6.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Patterson | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 20.6% | 20.1% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 28.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 16.0% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 17.8% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 13.7% | 67.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.