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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hampton University2.26+5.33vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech-1.79+13.13vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.87vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.30-0.11vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+0.82vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.16+0.80vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.95+0.35vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.45-2.17vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.10vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.39-6.34vs Predicted
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11William and Mary-0.10+1.48vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.23-0.12vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.28-1.29vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.85-6.55vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34-1.86vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.80-5.47vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech-1.79-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.33Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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15.13Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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3.87St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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3.89U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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5.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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6.8Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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7.35University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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5.83Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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10.1SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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3.66Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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12.48William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.88Ocean County College0.230.0%1st Place
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11.71Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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7.45George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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13.14University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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10.53Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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15.13Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Taglialegne | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 69.6% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 18.9% | 17.9% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 18.3% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 7.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 20.3% | 17.0% | 17.1% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 18.4% | 22.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 17.0% | 16.6% | 15.8% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 16.9% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 19.2% | 27.9% | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 69.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.