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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.82vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+1.65vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.30+0.82vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech-1.79+11.20vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.85+2.54vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49-0.13vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.45-1.01vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook0.90+2.07vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.16-2.28vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.25+1.80vs Predicted
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11Hampton University2.26-4.60vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.95-4.77vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.80-2.59vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.10-1.47vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University0.28-3.16vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34-2.87vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech-1.79-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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3.65Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.82U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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15.2Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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7.54George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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5.87St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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5.99Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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10.07SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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6.72Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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11.8Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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6.4Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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7.23University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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10.41Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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12.53William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.84Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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13.13University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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15.2Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Byerly | 18.8% | 16.5% | 17.1% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 20.6% | 19.0% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 18.0% | 18.4% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 11.6% | 71.4% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 18.7% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 19.4% | 22.2% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 15.6% | 17.9% | 16.8% | 12.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 18.5% | 30.0% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 11.6% | 71.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.