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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+2.78vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+3.74vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.81vs Predicted
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4Ocean County College0.25+7.89vs Predicted
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5Hampton University2.26+1.50vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.39-2.30vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-1.79+8.17vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.16-1.39vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.45-3.14vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.85-2.33vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.95-3.73vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.80-1.59vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook0.90-2.88vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.34-1.00vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University0.28-3.19vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech-1.79-0.83vs Predicted
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17William and Mary-0.10-4.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.78U. S. Naval Academy3.300.2%1st Place
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5.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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3.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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11.89Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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6.5Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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3.7Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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15.17Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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6.61Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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5.86Old Dominion University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.67George Washington University1.850.0%1st Place
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7.27University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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10.41Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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10.12SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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13.0University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.340.0%1st Place
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11.81Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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15.17Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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12.66William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 19.8% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greer Wattson | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 19.1% | 15.6% | 17.3% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 17.6% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 18.9% | 19.3% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 71.8% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Mergenthaler | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Mastrandrea | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Gallagher | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jeffery Mayher | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 19.4% | 25.1% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 17.3% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 71.8% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 18.8% | 21.9% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.